DRIP / Apex, Prediction-Based Experimentation

Black Friday

Black Friday, with the tests likely to win

For more revenue from the traffic you already pay for.

Apex scores every offer idea before you build it, so your busiest weeks go to the ideas most likely to win.

Start freeSee if your shop is a fit

30 days free. No card. Then the free plan, nothing to cancel.

34,504 Black Friday and offer tests in a database of 4.3 million A/B tests from 151,000 shops.

Three ways into Black Friday

Same shop, same traffic. What you get out of the season depends on which tests run.

  1. Guess

    No testing

    Change the page and hope it sells.

    • You never see which change sold more
    • A change that costs sales stays live through the peak
    • Nothing to carry into next year
    Chance a test winsNothing is tested
  2. Test

    Normal A/B testing

    Test whatever idea comes up first.

    • You see which version sells more
    • Ideas run in the order they come in
    • Every losing test uses traffic you only get once a year
    Chance a test winsHit or miss
  3. Prediction-Based Experimentation

    Apex

    Test the ideas that are likely to win.

    • Every idea gets its Likelihood to Win before you build it
    • Your peak traffic goes to the strongest ideas
    • Guardian pauses a test that costs you sales
    Chance a test winsHigher: likely winners run first

3.5×The top tenth of the ideas Apex scored were kept 3.5 times as often as the average.

Instead of relying on gut feeling, we now better understand our target audience and what truly drives their purchasing decisions.
Antonia KrautE-Commerce Manager, BLACKROLL€3.2Madditional revenue

Your Black Friday with Apex

Start weeks before the peak

In our data, the typical Black Friday test shows up four days before the day. Yours gets weeks.

  1. Four weeks before

    Score every offer idea

    Code or automatic discount, early access or open sale: each idea gets its Likelihood to Win, so the strongest go first.

    The Apex backlog of a demo shop with six Black Friday offer ideas, ranked by Likelihood to Win; a discount code instead of an automatic discount on top

  2. Three weeks before

    Build the offer from the chat

    Describe the banner in ChatGPT or Claude. Apex builds the variant as a draft, and you check it before it goes live.

    Apex in a chat: a Black Friday banner test created as a draft, the variation on a phone and the draft card asking for a primary goal

  3. Two weeks before

    Run your offers side by side

    Several offer tests run at once on the same traffic, so each gets normal days before the peak.

    Four tests of a demo shop running at once: free shipping bar, discount code in the banner, early access for subscribers, free gift with the order

  4. Black Friday week

    Guardian watches the peak

    Guardian pauses a test when a variation clearly converts worse, so a losing idea does not run through your best days.

    Guardian paused the discount code test to protect revenue, with buttons to resume, complete or view the results

What shops kept in their offer tests

Times as often as the average test, from our database of 4.3 million A/B tests.

  • Discount code1.82×
    Automatic discount1.20×
  • Early access1.58×
    Open sale1.07×
  • Amount off1.59×
    Percent off1.25×
  • Free gift1.47×
    Free shipping0.83×

Dashed line: the average test. Apex scores your offer ideas against tests like these.

Your offer ideas can run together

They supported us every step of the way, from underdogs to market leaders. Their expertise helped us stay profitable, giving us the foundation to scale and dominate our market.
Johannes KlieschFounder, SNOCKS€8.2Madditional revenue, over 550 experiments

The ten tests shops kept, on 55 pages

When to start your Black Friday tests, which offers shops kept, and how to run each one in Apex. Free.

Get the 55-page PDF
Cover of the PDF: Our 10 best A/B tests, backed by 4.3 million tests, with a bar for each of the ten concepts

Black Friday questions

When should my Black Friday tests start?

Weeks before the ads. In our data the typical Black Friday test shows up four days before the day, which leaves it little traffic before the peak.

Can I schedule a test for the sale?

Yes. Once you approve a test, it launches right away or on the day you schedule.

Will Apex tell me which offer wins?

No tool can promise that. Apex gives every idea its Likelihood to Win, which ranks it against your own backlog. The test on your traffic decides.

What if a variant costs sales on the busiest days?

Guardian pauses a test when a variation gets no conversions while the original converts, or clearly converts worse.

What does free mean?

You get 30 days free, without a card. After that your shop moves to the free plan, so there is nothing to cancel. The full terms are on the sign-up page.

Score your Black Friday ideas this week

Add your offer ideas and see which ones have a chance, before you build them.

Start freeSee if your shop is a fit

30 days free. No card. Then the free plan, nothing to cancel.